On March 4, 2025, waking up overnight, the US stock market collapsed again, with Nasdaq falling nearly 5% this year and the S&P 500 recording negative returns this year. The seven sisters in the US stock market collectively ran naked, and Nvidia fell 10% at one time, closing 8.69% lower.
On March 3rd local time, US President Trump announced that equivalent tariffs will begin to be imposed on April 2nd, and the 25% tariffs imposed by the US on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect on March 4th.
Trump stated that there is no room for consensus on tariffs on Mexico and Canada. In addition, Trump also stated that he will consider reaching a free trade agreement with Argentina.
The editor believes that there are several main reasons for Nvidia's sharp decline:
One reason is related to the new chip export policy of the United States, which is rumored to face a comprehensive ban, and Nvidia will naturally be impacted.
Secondly, the storytelling phase of Nvidia has come to an end and is now entering the stage of meeting the demand for computing power. Moreover, Deepseek's impact on Nvidia's computing power demand is far-reaching.
Thirdly, there are rumors from supply chain sources that the industry has doubts about the order reduction of Nvidia CoWoS. There are also reports that as Nvidia Hopper GPUs approach the end of their lifecycle, their advanced packaging orders may gradually decrease.
Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun later denied rumors that there would be no reduction in CoWoS packaging orders, and the reason for the digital change was only related to the shift to Blackwell production. Because Blackwell uses CoWoS-L technology, it means that the industry is shifting towards new production lines, resulting in a decrease in output.
The fourth point is interesting. Private equity tycoon Dan Bin, who has always been bullish on Nvidia, has turned the tide. He believes that Nvidia's computing power demand is essentially a durable consumer product, as it can be reused and downstream demand fluctuates greatly.
He stated that the cost of the model has decreased, efficiency has improved, AI scenarios have expanded, and the demand for computing power has increased. But computing power is a reusable resource, and as the demand for computing power increases, the demand for AI chips that generate computing power may also decrease.
So, I believe that even if the demand for computing power continues to grow, Nvidia's volatility will be very high.
原创文章，作者：btc，如若转载，请注明出处：https://www.xf1233.com/a/100
