On March 10th, oil prices fell, and the market was concerned that the US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China would impact the global economy and weaken energy demand. At the same time, OPEC+increased production to further pressure oil prices.
Brent crude oil futures closed at $69.28 per barrel, down $1.08, or 1.5%. As of press time, it is now reported at $69.26 per barrel.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures closed at $66.03 per barrel, down $1.01, or 1.5%. As of press time, it is now reported at $66.02 per barrel.
Last week, WTI fell for the seventh consecutive week, setting a record for the longest consecutive decline since November 2023, while Brent crude oil has been declining for three consecutive weeks.
US President Donald Trump's trade protectionism policies have caused global market turbulence, with Trump imposing and subsequently delaying tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the largest oil suppliers to the United States, while increasing tariffs on Chinese goods. Both China and Canada have implemented retaliatory tariffs in response to this.
The market is currently in a highly tense state, and there is a lot of information that needs to be digested in the future, "said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital." The discussion of a US economic recession is heating up, which is concerning for the macroeconomic outlook
Tariffs trigger recession concerns, stock market and oil prices decline synchronously
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated over the weekend that Trump will not ease pressure on tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China.
Investors are increasingly concerned that an economic slowdown may weaken demand for crude oil. The price of crude oil is usually related to the trend of the stock market. Due to the impact of tariffs, the US stock market has fallen sharply, with the S&P 500 index falling 2% during trading and the Nasdaq Composite index falling more than 3%.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated last Friday that OPEC+has agreed to gradually increase production from April onwards, but may reassess the decision to increase production if there is a market imbalance between supply and demand.
Trump puts pressure on Iran, potential sanctions or short-term support for oil prices
On the supply side, the Trump administration plans to cut off Iran's crude oil exports in order to force Iran to make concessions on the nuclear issue. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated on Saturday that Iran will not succumb to US negotiating pressure.
PVM analyst Tamas Varga believes that potential sanctions against Iran and Russia may support oil prices in the short term. But from a broader market perspective, "continued uncertainty may limit the space for oil price rebound
Last Friday, Trump stated that if Russia fails to reach a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, the United States will increase sanctions against Russia and push oil prices back from a six-month low. In addition, there are reports that the US government is considering easing sanctions on Russia's energy industry, provided that Moscow agrees to end the war against Ukraine.
Later this week, the market will focus on the upcoming monthly market reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to assess future crude oil demand and supply prospects.
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