On March 14th, spot gold hit a historic high of $2994 per ounce, approaching the $3000 mark. New York gold futures once again broke through $3000, reporting at $3005 per ounce.
Since the beginning of 2025, the cumulative increase in gold prices has been 14%.
Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to further rise by 8% in 2025, reaching a historic high of $3100 per ounce. BNP Paribas has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 by 8% to $2990, and is expected to surpass $3100 in the second quarter.
Macquarie Group stated that safe haven status may help gold rise to a record high of $3500 per ounce in the third quarter. ANZ Bank also holds an optimistic attitude towards gold, expecting gold prices to reach $3050 per ounce by 2025.
Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine, known as the "New Bond King," believes that with the market recognizing the storage value of gold and the instability of the financial system, the price of gold will soar to $4000 per ounce. However, he is uncertain whether he will reach this level this year.
The main driving factors for the rise of gold include
US tariff policy upgrades, global trade tensions intensify
The Trump administration announced a 200% tariff on EU wine, champagne and other goods, and refused to cancel the steel and aluminum tariffs that came into effect this week.
The plan to implement broader global trade tariffs on April 2nd may further affect the global supply chain.
The US inflation data is weak, and the market is betting on loose policies from the Federal Reserve: wholesale inflation data stagnated in February, mainly due to the decline in trade profits.
This data reinforces the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, and the market is betting that loose policies may come earlier.
The sharp decline in the equity market has triggered market panic, driving safe haven funds into gold
The S&P 500 index fell 10%, marking its first pullback in nearly two years and evaporating $5 trillion in market value.
Investors withdraw funds from the equity market and flood into safe haven assets such as gold and US Treasury bonds.
Although the yield of 10-year and 30-year US treasury bond bonds rose to the highest point this month, which should theoretically weaken the attractiveness of gold, market risk aversion still dominated, supporting the rise of gold prices.
Institutional viewpoint: Multiple investment banks are optimistic about the future performance of gold and believe that its upward trend will continue
Macquarie Group in Australia expects gold to rise to $3500 per ounce in the second quarter, due to escalating trade tensions and increased uncertainty about the US economic outlook.
BNP Paribas has raised its gold price forecast, expecting the average price to far exceed $3000 per ounce.
Market outlook:
In the short term, the market is paying attention to the Federal Reserve's policy signals.
If the Federal Reserve continues to release dovish signals, gold may maintain its strength and further challenge the $3000 mark.
In the medium term, the rise of gold still depends on safe haven demand
If Trump further expands the scope of trade tariffs, market risk aversion may push up gold prices.
But if the Federal Reserve takes more aggressive interest rate cuts, the US dollar may weaken, further boosting gold demand.
In the long run, concerns about economic recession may support gold to maintain high levels
The slowdown in economic growth, fluctuations in US Treasury yields, and geopolitical risks are all important driving forces behind the rise of gold.
Overall, the Trump administration's trade policies and weak US economic data have jointly driven gold prices to a historic high. If the trade conflict continues to escalate in the future, gold prices may further impact levels above $3000 or even challenge the $3500 mark.
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