Trump token plummets to $10, is it a good opportunity to buy bottom or a leek harvester?
Magical Reality: The Roller Coaster Journey of Presidential Tokens
The cryptocurrency market in 2025 is staging a surreal drama - a former US president's Twitter account can manipulate the rise and fall of trillions of dollars in the market, even driving global investors crazy for an "air coin".
Since its launch on January 18th, TRUMP has broken the record in human financial history with a 412 fold increase: the opening price was $0.18, soaring to $30 in 12 hours, and reaching a peak of $77.25. Its market value once surpassed traditional tokens such as Tron, Avalanche, and Dogecoin. However, with the implementation of White House policies and the collective departure of market makers, this "presidential token" fell below the $10 psychological barrier on March 11th, evaporating 88% from its historical high, equivalent to cutting Mount Everest into Sheshan.
At present, the global chives are divided into two factions:
- Faith faction: Bottom fishing! After Trump's re-election, he will definitely pull the ball!
Awakening Party: Run! The Ponzi scheme is about to go to zero!
The essence of this carnival is the collusion between political power and encrypted capital.
This article will combine market data, policy logic, and cyclical patterns to deeply analyze the bottom buying range, possible rebound time window, and target space of TRUMP token.
Source of the sharp decline: from the "presidential concept" to the "leek harvester"
The collapse of Trump Coin is not accidental, and its price fluctuations are essentially a typical product of "political narrative+market manipulation".
1. Internal selling pressure and chip concentration
According to Chainalysis data, the early chips of the TRUMP token were highly concentrated in the hands of insiders: the first public buying wallet opened a position within one hour after the token was launched, purchased 5.97 million TRUMP tokens (worth approximately $1.075 million) at an average price of $0.18, and sold them when the price soared to $75, earning over $400 million. In addition, the Trump family holds 80% of the token chips (approximately 800 million) through their subsidiary CIC Digital, which will gradually be unlocked over the next three years, while retail investors' bottom fishing behavior is just providing "fuel" to market makers.
According to AI Auntie's statistics, over 810000 individual investors have accumulated losses exceeding $2 billion, forming a classic pattern of "whales harvesting individual investors".
2. Policy expectation overdraft and market sentiment reversal
Magical Reality: The Roller Coaster Journey of President Trump's Token
The cryptocurrency market in 2025 is staging a surreal drama - a former US president's Twitter account can manipulate the rise and fall of trillions of dollars in the market, even driving global investors crazy for an "air coin".
Since its launch on January 18th, TRUMP has broken the record in human financial history with a 412 fold increase: the opening price was $0.18, soaring to $30 in 12 hours, and reaching a peak of $77.25. Its market value once surpassed traditional tokens such as Tron, Avalanche, and Dogecoin. However, with the implementation of White House policies and the collective departure of market makers, this "presidential token" fell below the $10 psychological barrier on March 11th, evaporating 88% from its historical high, equivalent to cutting Mount Everest into Sheshan.
Bottom line range calculation: triple verification of technical, on chain, and emotional aspects
$9.5-11: Banker's self rescue zone
On February 28th, TRUMP rebounded at $11 and quickly fell back after breaking through $17, triggering a "false breakout" with MACD golden cross and RSI oversold (35). There are a large number of stop loss orders gathered here, and the market maker may create a false "W bottom" to attract more.
$5: Institutional cost line
The Trump team has been exposed to hold positions at an average price of $5, and the market makers may protect the market here.
Emotional indicator: Trump may continue to decline
According to data from Alternative. me, the Fear Greed Index in the cryptocurrency market has dropped to 14 (extreme fear), approaching the historical low of the LUNA crash in July 2024.
TRUMP's social media discussion volume has sharply decreased, with a 89% drop in mentions of the Twitter keyword "# BuyTrump". At the same time, Trump's online contract holdings have sharply decreased to $260 million, indicating that there is still a risk of further decline.
▶ Overall conclusion:
First bottom buying range: $5 (strong support zone, suitable for investors to build positions in batches)
Rising timing: Banker clock and chive biological clock
The rise of cryptocurrencies is not based on candlesticks, but only on the 'story density'.
At the same time, the value anchor of Trump Coin is not technology or ecology, but Trump's Twitter activity.
The potential tipping points for TRUMP coin include:
Short term (1-3 months): Emotional repair trap
April tax season: US retail tax refund funds enter the market, possibly hyping up the concept of 'Trump Tax Cuts 2.0'.
Technical rebound: If breaking through the resistance level of $11.5, the short-term target is $13-14.8, and in extreme cases, it may hit $17.95 (classic proportion of self rescue by market makers).
Mid term (6-12 months): Political gambling
BTC Strong Rebound (2025): If Bitcoin rebounds strongly and breaks through $110000 again in the second half of 2025, Meme coins will experience a collective frenzy.
Mid term election campaign (2026Q2): The Trump team may use methods such as airdrops and lock up voting to gain momentum, with a target price of $30-40.
Long term (over 1 year): Either ascend to heaven or descend to earth
Trump's re-election (2028): Token may be upgraded to a "Presidential Certified Asset" with a target price of $100 (belief value).
Project runaway: The team's $2 billion deposit disappears, and the coin price returns to zero (probability 51%).
Satirical reality: In the script of TRUMP coin, the reason for the rise is Trump alive+continuing to tweet+SEC pretending to be blind.
If you carefully observe Trump's Twitter, his son Eric Trump's Twitter, and the official Twitter of Trump Coin, you will find that they have not mentioned Trump Coin or really done anything for the Trump MEME Coin community for a long time.
So if you're not looking for an excuse for TRUMP to rise, here are the 'Schr ö dinger's positives':
Political Sacrificology
Trump binds tokens to campaign funds, supporters buy coins=political donations (see 2024 NFT donation event).
Banker's Rejuvenation Technique
The top 15 addresses have already sold 80% of their chips. If they attract chips at a low price and make a second round of buying, they can cut another round.
Industry collision studies
Claiming to establish payment connections with Trump hotels and golf clubs, even though these properties have been mortgaged to banks
Metaphysics driven theory
The "trinity" hype cycle consists of a US election year, a six-month reduction in Bitcoin, and a Federal Reserve interest rate cut year.
Truth Strike: The above reasons are equivalent to "predicting stock prices with tarot cards", the only certainty is that the sickle is faster than the leek.
Ultimate advice: Life saving guide and performance art
If you insist on participating in this absurd game, please follow the following "survival rules of leeks":
Position control
Participate with entertainment funds, with a single currency accounting for less than 5%. Assuming you invest $10000, the zero loss equals one meal per day.
Escape route
Set a hard stop loss line (such as below $3) to reject the illusion of "value investing". Remember: Meme coins have no value, only a price.
Performance art
Buy $100 TRUMP coins and take a screenshot with the caption 'Support Comrade Chuan Jianguo', the traffic return may exceed the investment return.
conclusion
The sharp decline and potential rebound of Trump currency is essentially a game of "political expectation gap" and "market cycle law". For investors, the Trump token - around $5- can be seen as a tentative bottom fishing area with a better "risk return ratio", but positions need to be strictly controlled (it is recommended not to exceed 5% of total funds). The real trend opportunity still needs to wait for the policy toolbox to be opened and the market leverage to be completely cleared.
In the world of encryption, there is no narrative worth all in, but there are always opportunities worth trading for imagination with stop loss.
原创文章,作者:btc,如若转载,请注明出处:https://www.xf1233.com/a/273