Solana's' coming of age ceremony '- CME releases SOL futures, about to soar

Solana's' coming of age ceremony '- CME releases SOL futures, about to soar
On March 17, 2025, CME announced the launch of Solana (SOL) futures, with SOL prices rapidly rising 18.1% from $78.3 to $92.5, indicating the market's high recognition of its ecological value. This change is driven by three major factors: compliance certification makes it more convenient for institutional investors to enter, liquidity upgrades promote a surge in trading volume, and ecological valuation strengthens its position as a financial infrastructure. In addition, the launch of CME futures may also shift SOL's valuation logic from technology driven to institutional investment, with SOL prices expected to rise to $150 to $200 in the next three months.

Event Impact: The Triple Positive Behind SOL's 18% Single Day Surge
On March 17, 2025, CME announced that it would officially launch Solana on March 3331. Solana's price soared from $78.3 to $92.5, with a 24-hour increase of 18.1% and an 8% rebound. This is not only a market frenzy, but also marks the recognition of Solana's ecological value by traditional financial capital

1. Compliance certification: breaking through the final barrier of "institutional entry"
Regulatory endorsement: As a top derivatives exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), CME's inclusion of SOL in the futures market means that it is officially classified as a "non securities commodity". This greatly reduces the threat of regulatory uncertainty from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and clears compliance barriers for institutional investors. According to a report released by Matrixport on the 228th of 2025, Bitcoin
Institutional channel: CME Futures provides a convenient pathway for traditional capital such as pension funds and hedge funds to enter the cryptocurrency market in compliance. According to the latest report by Grayscale, over 70% of institutional investors prefer to participate in the market through derivatives rather than directly holding spot stocks
2. Liquidity upgrade: Market maker ammunition depot expansion
Arbitrage mechanism activation: The price difference between Sol futures and spot will attract market makers to participate in arbitrage trading, driving the daily trading volume of Sol from the current $3 billion to over $5 billion. Matrixport report shows
Volatility suppression: Institutions hedge risks through the futures market, effectively stabilizing short-term volatility in SOL. Referring to the data after the launch of Bitcoin eTf, its 30 day volatility has decreased from 85% to 60%. Sol expects to benefit from this trend and provide investors with a more stable market environment., Provide investors with a more stable market environment.
3. Ecological Value Re evaluation: From "High Performance Chain" to "Financial Infrastructure"
CME chooses SOL instead of other first layers (Avalanche, Sui), endorsement of Solana mechanism level stability:

Technical indicators: Solana's main network has had no major downtime for 12 consecutive months, with TPS stable at over 5000.
Asset accumulation: As of March 2025, the total value of t tvl is 7.4 billion US dollars
Institutional layout: Traditional financial institutions such as Fidelity and Vaneck have launched the Solana Ecological Special Fund, demonstrating confidence in Solana's long-term potential.
Historical Mirror: How CME Futures Rewrite the Fate of Assets
Sol Sol provides reference. Bitcoin CME futures rose as much as 65% in the first 30 days of December 2017, but due to the immature market, they fell 56% within 180 days after going online. Ethereum launched CME futures in February 2021, with the top 92%, followed by a 92% increase, and achieved a 48% growth in the following 180 days. This indicates that

Bitcoin
Compared to Bitcoin, Sol has a high beta attribute and a 90 day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index of only 0.3, much lower than Bitcoin's 0.7, making it an ideal asset for hedging against traditional market risks. This low correlation attracts funds from risk averse institutions. In addition, CME futures are expected to generate an annualized premium income of approximately 15%, which can provide financial support to the Solana Foundation, motivate developers, and consolidate technological advantages., Motivate developers and consolidate technological advantages., Motivate developers and consolidate technological advantages.

Ecological Evolution: Futures Empowering Solana's Value Chain
The launch of Sol futures will promote the multidimensional upgrading of the ecosystem. In the defi field, liquidity pledge agreements such as jito and pickling can be used to develop hedging tools based on futures prices, while decentralized derivative exchanges such as drift and zeta markets plan to launch volatility products and Solana's financial instrument matrix.

CME or Coinbase will launch "compliant pledged futures", increasing from 6.2% to over 8%, attracting more institutions to participate. Pledgers can hedge price risk through futures, releasing approximately 1.2 sol (with a market value exceeding $11 billion), significantly enhancing market liquidity, Significantly improve market liquidity.

Pantera Capital and other venture capital firms have established 5 Solana Ecological Funds and incubated projects in fields such as DeFi NFT RWA. Currently, Solana has over 3000 monthly active developers

Bitcoin
Matrixport analysis states, "Solana's performance advantages make it a new favorite of institutions, and CME futures will accelerate this trend, surpassing Ethereum to become the second largest blockchain ecosystem in the next two years, Masari CEO Ryanselkis also commented, "Solana is reshaping the blockchain landscape, and CME's endorsement makes its competitive advantage even more apparent These views highlight Sol's unique position in the market.

Future deduction: paradigm shift of Sol valuation model
CME launches SOL futures, and Solana's valuation logic quietly shifts from a technology driven perspective to a more institutional investment oriented perspective. Now, the price of Sol Sol is $149, and TVL has reached $7.4 billion, demonstrating its strong performance in the DeFi NFT and NFT fields. We are trying to use a simple model to predict the next 3 months (until June 2025)

Consider several key factors: Solana t tvl may rise by 20% within 3 months, as it has steadily developed in the past), new funds brought by CME futures (estimated to have $5 billion in institutional capital inflows, around 7%, or $71 billion), and changes in market sentiment. Assuming that these factors have an impact of 80% and 70% on the price, the current price of $149 is multiplied by ($149 multiplied by (1+0.16+0.16+0.05))（（

Based on the historical experience of Bitcoin and Ethereum CME futures being launched, it is possible for SOL to rise by 20% -50% in the short term, so we expect the price to be around $150 to $200 within 3 months